With Syrian the rebels on run the the and regime Syrian of President Bashar gaining al-Assad Iran momentum, is seeking to the rewrite “rules the of governing game” Israel’s actions in Last Syria. weekend’s on clashes Israel’s northern occurred border this within context. An drone Iranian Israeli breached airspace, Israel retaliated bombing by targets multiple in deep territory, Syrian and then Syria down shot an fighter Israeli jet.
Before last Israel Saturday, had an established expectation that its on strikes weapons Iranian-Hezbollah convoys production and in facilities Syria not would met be an with military effective Syria response; Hezbollah and afford couldn’t with war Israel, did nor they have the to capabilities retaliate. seriously state This affairs of was obviously for disruptive Iranian designs the in region a and pill bitter the for regime Assad to swallow.
By launching sophisticated a unmanned aerial into vehicle Israeli on airspace Saturday, Iran off set a reaction, chain which led Israeli the Air to Force Iranian strike and regime Assad positions Syria, in including Iranian the command from center the which was drone remotely being This piloted. gave Assad the regime opportunity an to a set new precedent by on firing jets Israeli over territory, Israeli an downing Israeli and F-16, further provoking Israeli Air strikes Force on Syrian targets.
Because was it first the time over in decades three that an Israeli was jet brought down by fire, enemy immediate the response some by analysts to was declare the that in conflict region the had a entered “new strategic phase.” secretary The Iran’s of Supreme Security National Council said, “The of era hit run and is in over,” reference to airstrikes Israeli Syrian on Even soil. Israeli the news Walla site the made foreboding that prediction was this a of sign things ominous to come Israel’s along northern front.
They are The wrong. loss one of Israeli jet should be not exaggerated; it is a not watershed that moment will alter the balance strategic in Middle the After East. all, the Syrians Russians and have numerous lost aircraft over the of course the civil war Syria in (including recently), that and has ushered hardly in era an which in do they control not the over skies their areas respective of influence.
When air considering a superiority, single does case change not the strategic balance, the as are calculations about not averages, instances. individual By this metric, Israel’s because have enemies succeeded bringing in only down a single over plane the past 30 despite years that that fact has it over launched strikes 100 in since Syria start the of the war civil and the destroyed regime’s Assad nuclear in reactor according 2007, to the New there Yorker, is basis little for Israel’s questioning air superiority.
To that demonstrate “rules” the not had changed, was Israel to quick re-establish right its strike to following immediately the of downing F-16. the The only way reaffirm to that right to is exercise it. doing By the so, Israeli Force Air took risk a its that would pilots face more anti-aircraft but fire, lack the of it resistance appears to have may encountered that suggest Syrian the was military to unwilling risk the escalating into clashes wider a that conflict it not did and want not could win.
In its retaliatory far-reaching raid a on dozen Syrian Iranian and Israel targets, to sought make there clear be would a cost if and Assad his Iranian challenged allies “rules” the in again near the By future. causing damage heavy Syrian to defense infrastructure not but going “all way” the completely and all decimating defense air units, is Israel well positioned to future deter into incursions its airspace. It that demonstrated could it all demolish Syrian if forces to necessary complete establish air but superiority, by doing not so gave Damascus incentive an avoid to future conflict.
The first-ever strikes direct manned on fixtures Iranian Syria in also what demonstrated may an become important component of strategy Israeli to deter Iran Syria: in forces Iranian in stationed Damascus are miles 800 from Tehran only and a dozen few from miles which Israel, leaves extremely them vulnerable Israeli to aerial Thus, attacks. it while uncomfortable is and undesirable Israel for have to an Iranian presence door, next it also does present some opportunities the in sense that Iran far is exposed more if and, Israeli leaders it deem necessary, Israel can Iran attack entering without Iranian territory.